Who to follow at Ludlow this season
Less than a week out from a new season’s racing at Ludlow, October stages two fixtures including the bucolic Ludlow Brewery Day to launch on Wednesday October 8th.
And whilst the racecourse emits a delightful timeless ambiance, visitors would do well to take heed of the changing fortunes of trainers sending their runners here. The statistics aren’t necessarily what you might imagine.
This is generally not a course where the top players in training enjoy a dominant position. Paul Nicholls has run just 35 horses here in the past 5 years, and belies his high winning percentage overall by underperforming around the tight Ludlow course. His 7 runners in the 24-25 season rendered just the one winner.
Nicky Henderson fared no better, with no winners from 8 runners in 24-25, although he has a 100% record from his single runner in the current season, which includes the May fixture.
And Dan Skelton is much the same: 3 winners from 28 runners last season and a miserable 11% strike rate by his standards, only slightly improved over a 5 year timespan.
The quirks of Ludlow then are the domain of those that have taken the trouble to place horses there best suited to the sharp track and good or better ground conditions. The result is that honours are more evenly shared among the second tier of yards without legions of Saturday horses that Ludlow does not cater for.
Top of the tree is Fergal O’Brien, whose 5 year record boasts 28 winners from 136 runners at a highly respectable 21% strike rate. He mustered just 3 winners here last term, but finished for the summer with 2 from 2 at the May fixture, courtesy of a double with Zucayan and Casting Aspersions in handicap hurdles. Rather uniquely among riders, Ravenswell’s first jockey Jonathan Burke has a large positive balance to a £1 stake for Ludlow rides, at £44.40. Don’t imagine that will remain for too long.
Local trainers Henry Daly and Venetia Williams also enjoy good medium term records here, with 17 and 16 winners respectively. By dint of the fact Ludlow enjoys a midwinter programme for the most part, this plays to their strengths in the soft ground bloodstock that is their preference.
Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies also have an excellent record here and send plenty of runners, as does Kim Bailey.
But the new generation of trainers vying for supremacy really began to show its face last season. ben Pauling’s 5 winners from 7 runners, Jamie Snowden’s 5 from 8, show some keen placing and strike rates that don’t represent the norm – over 60%. Harry Derham goes one better: an 80% strike rate with 4 winners from 5 runners. Alistair Ralph has been forcing his way into this group too, as a 17% strike rate illustrates.
And among the smaller stables, never underestimate Matt Sheppard. His 7 winners from 33 runners since 2020 includes a brace of doubles last season, his best ever.
This is a good course also to back favourites in conditions races, especially hurdles, where you have a 59% chance of winning by backing the jolly.